Jeep Recon Pricing Thoughts

[AMC4x4]

BEVs will be no more than 15% of the US market for at least 20 years. Right now it’s 8.9% of total auto sales and holding steady.

Yeah, that’s just incorrect. It’s not “holding steady.” Just two years ago BEV’s were 5% of the market. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

Let’s place a little bet, shall we? We will hit 15% by the time the new old guy is out of office. You can’t stop progress. 15% of the market will be here by 2029, and my guess is we will actually hit that number by 2028.

 

[Recon]

Yeah, that’s just incorrect. It’s not “holding steady.” Just two years ago BEV’s were 5% of the market. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

Let’s place a little bet, shall we? We will hit 15% by the time the new old guy is out of office. You can’t stop progress. 15% of the market will be here by 2029, and my guess is we will actually hit that number by 2028.

Here are the numbers I’m looking at: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

If the new old guy decides he doesn’t like BEV vehicles, the federal incentives will go away. If one of his rich buddies makes him decide he does like them, maybe the incentive will double.

There are so many other factors weighing on it too: the lack of electric generation capacity in the us (and competition with AI for the same) lack of facilities in inner cities. Lack of facilities in remote areas.

I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, it is… it just may hit some bumps in the road that’ll slow down adoption.

 

[AMC4x4]

Here are the numbers I’m looking at: https://caredge.com/guides/electric-vehicle-market-share-and-sales

Right - I think you misread the numbers. Quarter to quarter it was steady. Year over year, there was an increase:

• EV sales were up 15% year-over-year, totaling 365,824 sales in the third quarter
• The fourth quarter of 2024 was another record quarter for EV sales in America as more drivers give owning and leasing an electric vehicle a try

That's not "holding steady."

I think you also have to consider that many folks like myself who have yet to buy their first BEV are just waiting for the market to mature a little more, which it will. The Equinox and Blazer, as well as the Honda Prologue and upcoming Bolt revision will be bigger sellers. I live in a VERY red area, and we have three Prologues in the neighborhood as of the last quarter. That signals to me that even skeptics are willing to take a look at EV's if they are offered from "traditional" automakers. Also, you can't discount the fact that people are waiting for the NACS plugs to be implemented.

If the new old guy decides he doesn’t like BEV vehicles, the federal incentives will go away. If one of his rich buddies makes him decide he does like them, maybe the incentive will double.

My guess is the rebates are going away for a while. I actually think this might be a good thing as it will stop the whole "will this qualify or won't this qualify" game that automakers are playing, and they'll all just be on a level playing field and have to provide real value more transparently in their pricing.

There are so many other factors weighing on it too: the lack of electric generation capacity in the us (and competition with AI for the same) lack of facilities in inner cities. Lack of facilities in remote areas. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, it is… it just may hit some bumps in the road that’ll slow down adoption.

Just my guess, but the slowdown will be temporary. The rest of the world is going EV, no question. The US can decide whether or not we want to be a third-world nation burning dirty fuel or if we want to centralize our power generation where pollution can be contained and then make all our endpoints cleaner, with the added benefit that provides of being cleaner "over time" as cleaner generation sources (even potentially nuclear) come online.

 

[TBCreative67]

Yeah, that’s just incorrect. It’s not “holding steady.” Just two years ago BEV’s were 5% of the market. Not sure where you are getting your numbers.

Let’s place a little bet, shall we? We will hit 15% by the time the new old guy is out of office. You can’t stop progress. 15% of the market will be here by 2029, and my guess is we will actually hit that number by 2028.

Exactly right and based in fact, not conjecture.

 

[WXman]

For me it will 100% come down to whether they offer a great lease deal on Recon or not.

I think buying an EV is a terrible decision. Tech is moving so fast that 10 years from now you won't be able to walk into a Jeep dealership and buy parts for a Recon. I would bet cash on that. Heck, you can barely get parts for 1 year old Jeeps today. There's no way they'll support old battery technology and onboard charging systems for 10 years as technology changes quickly. On top of that, repairs are PRICEY out of warranty.

So for me, it's lease or no deal. And if you look at the current lineup Jeep has in the EV department, there are no lease deals to be found. So we'll see.....

 

[AMC4x4]

For me it will 100% come down to whether they offer a great lease deal on Recon or not.

I think you're in the 99%. The two Recon models at the NY Auto Show this week show a $65K MSRP and knowing the current depreciation trend with EVs, I don't know anyone who is going to buy one at that price unless it's the EXACT vehicle they were looking for (who is that even)?

The real question will be if Stellantis Financial decides to inflate the residuals on these to keep lease terms attractive. I don't think any third-party financial companies will want to take a chance with an optimistic residual on an unproven $65K EV Jeep, particularly when they've just been burned by all the 2022/23 EV leases ending with residuals far lower than predicted.

It will be up to the captive finance arm (Stellantis FS) to make the Recon a success or not. I think the only thing that might work in your favor when leasing is that Stellantis really needs a success story right now, so they might emphasize shareholder returns today and worry about two or three years down the road when they get there.

As for buying an EV overall, I disagree there. A Jeep EV? I agree - Stellantis has shown no loyalty to any customer who has already purchased one of their electrified products. There's no reason to think it will be much different going forward until the overall market has matured a little more. But I just sold my Wrangler and bought a 2023 EV6 GT-Line AWD and got such a good deal on it that I'll be more than happy to drive the wheels off it and just recycle it in six or seven years and it will have been worth everything I paid for it. The car is that good, as is the EV experience overall.